THE DUNNING KRUGER EFFECT: INTERPLAY OF BEHAVIORS- CHAPTER 02

***Continued from Chapter 01 (Covered previously: Meaning & Interpretation, Historical Origins, Types Of Information: The Ignorance Of Ignorance, The Dunning-Kruger Effect In The Workplace and In Our Lives)

Link to Chapter 01:

THE DUNNING KRUGER EFFECT: INTERPLAY OF BEHAVIORS- CHAPTER 01

Behaviors That Initiate The Dunning-Kruger Effect

How To Steer Away From The Dunning Kruger Effect

People can learn they are incompetent . . . by becoming competent. Thinking of meta-cognition again, we may divide it into two: General and domain specific.

If we can hone our general meta-cognition, we can ensure that we do not fall for the Dunning-Kruger effect in whatever domain. Every time we think – “I am above average, of course” – an alarm bell needs to go off in our mind. How do we know we are above average? Getting to know our peers and what they are doing can help. If we can distinguish between the competent and those who are not, maybe we do know what we are doing. If not, that should be enough of a warning to dive deeper into whatever we are learning – switching to specific meta-cognition.

Another antidote is the Stoic art of premeditatio malorum, or pre-meditation of evils. Assuming we have failed, or found out we are objectively bad at something – how do we tend to explain it? Would we call it just a bad day, or something deeper? Depending on how many times we face this failure in real life (a proxy for competence), the answer ought to transition from “just a bad day” to “I need to improve”. Here are a few other things we can do:

Countering The Dunning-Kruger Effect In The Workplace

People are social animals and do not like to be exposed as simply wrong, so the best way to handle people is to help them to understand that things are more complicated than they thought through their own reasoning. That is, they must realize for themselves that maybe there is more to the situation or problem than they initially thought. Some ways we can do this are:

A) With our  Subordinates- Appropriate Coaching Style:

We can adopt a coaching style to give them feedback on their ideas and work progress. This style should not be critical but should help them to explore potential issues with their ideas. Over time, team members will develop a deeper understanding of typical issues that might arise, and a set of tools and strategies for analyzing situations for potential problems that might occur on their own.

B) With our Superiors- Managing Up: We want our superiors to realize for themselves that their initial ideas may be more complex and fraught with difficulties than they originally imagined. This will involve:

Domain Dependence Of The Dunning Kruger Effect

The effect does not show up everywhere. One big caveat is the domain under consideration. In some domains, knowledge does imply competence. For example, someone who understands inferential logic will be a competent logician. In other domains, competence depends on other factors too, like physical skill. For example, soccer coaches probably know what they are doing, but can we imagine Sir Alex Ferguson playing a 90 minute game now? He is not competent at playing soccer. Despite this, he has the knowledge to realize when one of his players is making a mistake in the game.

In domains where knowledge implies competence, lack of skill implies both the inability to perform competently as well as the inability to recognize competence, and thus are also the domains in which the incompetent are likely to be unaware of their lack of skill. Or, the domains in which the Dunning Kruger effect runs rabid. If we cannot serve in tennis, we probably don’t think we are Wimbledon material. But again, that does not stop some people from thinking they can win a point off Serena Williams.

Finally, in order for the incompetent to overestimate themselves, they must satisfy a minimal threshold of knowledge, theory, or experience that suggests to themselves that they can generate correct answers.

The Paradox Of Overcoming Ignorance

How do we get someone—or ourselves—to look for something we cannot even see?  This is the paradox of trying to overcome our own ignorance: The very thing that would help us see our mistakes is the same thing that would keep us from making them in the first place. We cannot reason with a conspiracy theorist precisely because they did not form their beliefs with reason.

Part of the problem is that there is comfort in the feeling of knowing. People do not like uncertainty. And so settling on a belief helps us feel like we have made more sense of the world. When we can make sense of the world, we feel safe. Whether that belief is true or not does not matter—it just has to give us some relief from the anxiety of not knowing.

Also, it turns out it is not helpful to be direct with them for how stupid they are. Being too open to people simply causes them to become more defensive and double-down on their challenged beliefs, not relinquish them.

Conclusion

Humility is an important value. In fact, the Dunning-Kruger Effect suggests that humility can be highly practical. By intentionally underestimating our understanding of things, not only do we open up more opportunities to learn and grow, but we also foster a more realistic view of ourselves, and prevent ourselves from looking like a narcissist around others. Now, when we talk about the Dunning-Kruger effect we seem to (ironically enough) believe that it doesn’t apply to us. But the truth is, every single one of us has been a victim of it, at one point or the other, and our denial is the very proof it. We can find many examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect just by imploring ourselves, for example our shortcoming when it comes to accepting differing opinions or facts that directly contradict our views stems from our belief that we already know the “correct” opinion on a particular matter.

Content Curated By: Dr Shoury Kuttappa

THE DUNNING KRUGER EFFECT: INTERPLAY OF BEHAVIORS- CHAPTER 01

If we were asked to rate our driving ability on a scale of 1 to 10, how would we score ourselves? Maybe we are not amongst the best drivers in the world, but we probably do not believe we are the worst. In fact, we probably rate ourselves as being a little better than the average driver. The problem with this is that most people rate themselves as being a better driver than the average person. This is the Dunning-Kruger Effect, where most people overrate their abilities, with the greatest overestimation coming from those with the lowest skills.

Perhaps what’s even more amazing is that the English philosopher Bertrand Russell said this long before the advent of the internet. Today, due to the joys of social media, we are regularly exposed to legions of people who believe they know what they are talking about when they do not. And, indeed, as Russell pointed out, the more clueless these people are, the more confident in their pronouncements they seem to be. People who are bad at something do believe they are good at it, and people who are good at it do believe they are bad at it. Amateurs are overconfident and experts are under confident. Newbies believe they have got it all figured out and the weathered veterans understand that nothing is really known for sure.

What Is The Dunning-Kruger Effect?

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias characterized by overconfidence in one’s ability on a particular subject. The gap between perceived ability and actual ability is typically blind to the individual concerned, but often not to others around them. The Dunning-Kruger effect was first recognized in David Dunning and Justin Kruger’s 1999 study “Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments”. This gap between perceived performance and actual performance can be best shown using the Dunning-Kruger Curve.

The Curve shows that people with zero experience know they are incompetent. However, those with just a little experience vastly overestimate their competence. As people get further experience, they become more aware of the gaps in their knowledge and their confidence decreases until they reach the point of average competence. After this point, as their expertise increases, so does their confidence.

The scariest thing about this effect is that we won’t even realize we are there. An important point to realize is that the only people who tend to underestimate their abilities are those that are actually the most competent and experienced. This is often called the burden of expertise.

Similar Falacies – Historical Origins

Anna Karenina principle (Leo Tolstoy- 1877): The Anna Karenina principle states that a deficiency in any one of a number of factors dooms an endeavor to failure. Consequently, a successful endeavor (subject to this principle) is one for which every possible deficiency has been avoided.

In other words: happy families share a common set of attributes which lead to happiness, while any of a variety of attributes can cause an unhappy family.

Aristotle’s version:

Much earlier, Aristotle states the same principle in the Nicomachean Ethics (Book 2):-

The Opposite of Dunning-Kruger:

The opposite of the Dunning-Kruger Effect to some degree is Imposter Syndrome.

Here, you have high-ability but believe your actual ability is very low. In a nutshell, while your ability is high, you feel like a fraud or believe that you are faking competence in some way.

Types Of Information: The Ignorance Of Ignorance

There are four types of information:

The unknown unknowns are where the Dunning-Kruger effect comes into play in the worst way. It is our tendency to overestimate our own knowledge/skills/competence and underestimate our own ignorance. The Dunning-Kruger Effect goes beyond ignorance. It presents a meta-layer of ignorance—the ignorance of our own ignorance. And that is what Russell says is so wrong with the world: that we predictably overestimate our knowledge and abilities in a way that causes more errors and graver mistakes.

Some more instances are:

We fail to consider that we also fall victim to this blindspot. We have blind spots when it comes to our emotional awareness as well.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect In The Workplace

In many domains in life and work, success and satisfaction depend on knowledge, wisdom, or savvy in knowing which rules to follow and which strategies to pursue. People also differ widely in the knowledge and strategies they apply in these domains. When people adopt incorrect strategies, not only do they reach wrong conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it. Some situations that arise may be:-

Impact  Of Dunning-Kruger In The Workplace

Impact  Of Dunning-Kruger In Our Daily Lives

A) People think they are better than they are: They think they are better than they actually are, not that they are better than the best. In some cases it is another behavior that is in play – confidence. The perceived ability therefore is equal to how great their confidence may be. People with almost zero knowledge don’t think they “know everything.” They think they know more than they do. It’s still less than what competent people know.

B) People do not recognize competence when they see it: They do not recognize the real great people. Therefore, they cannot learn from them, cannot improve themselves, and are destined to stay as they are. Meta-cognition is this ability to think about and judge our thinking. It’s a skill separate from how well we learn (cognition).

C) People do not learn from their peers: One of the ways people gain insight into their own competence is by watching the behavior of others. Because of their difficulty recognizing competence in others, they will be unable to use information about the choices and performances of others to form more accurate impressions of their own ability.

For success to occur, many things must go right: The person must be skilled, apply effort, and perhaps be a bit lucky. For failure to occur, the lack of any one of these components is sufficient. The problem with failure is that it is difficult to figure out the root cause. Because of this, even if people receive feedback that points to a lack of skill, they may attribute it to some other factor.

***To be continued in Chapter 02 (Behaviors That Initiate The Dunning-Kruger Effect, How To Steer Away From It, Countering The Dunning-Kruger Effect, Domain Dependence, Paradox Of Overcoming Ignorance) Link to Chapter -02:

THE DUNNING KRUGER EFFECT: INTERPLAY OF BEHAVIORS- CHAPTER 02

Content Curated By: Dr Shoury Kuttappa

HABITS, ROUTINES, RITUALS: UNDERSTANDING BEHAVIORS

As much as we wish for each day to be different, the cycle of repeating the same actions day after day is pretty common. Habits and routines are an important part of our lives. Making our bed in the morning, that first cup of coffee, grabbing a toast on our way to work, listening to our favorite music on the train, are some instances. And while we tend to use the words “habit” and “routine” interchangeably, they both mean two distinct things. Understanding their definitions can help us design good routines and build good habits.

Shades of consciousness

The main difference between habits and routines is how much aware and intentional we are. A habit usually manifests itself as an automatic urge to do something, often triggered by a particular cue. The stronger the connection between the trigger and the habit, the more ingrained the habit. Waking up, commuting, walking past a particular store, starting a meeting at work are all common cues that can trigger actions such as drinking coffee, buying a sandwich, or smoking a cigarette.

In contrast, routines require deliberate practice. Making our bed in the morning, going to the gym, going for a hike every Sunday, meditating are all routines that require conscious practice to keep them alive, or they eventually die out. Our brain will not go into automatic mode and walk us to the gym. Both habits and routines are regular and repeated actions, but habits happen with little or no conscious thought, whereas routines require a higher degree of intention and effort. With enough time and the right techniques, routines can turn into habits, but it is not an automatic, unconscious process. One needs to want to turn a routine into a habit for the process to happen.

Turning Habits into Routines

Much has been written about habit creation and the classic habit loop.

The hardest part is obviously to execute the routine right after the cue. As we discussed, habits are automatically triggered by cues, whereas routines require a conscious effort on our part. This is why we can use some tricks to make it slightly easier to go from cue to routine and build a lasting habit loop.

A popular one is habit stacking: designed by Professor BJ Fogg, this approach consists in taking baby steps by anchoring a new tiny habit to an existing one. For example: “After showering, I will change into my workout clothes and meditate for ten minutes before starting work.”

But how can we take it to the next level and go beyond creating high level routines?

From Routine to Ritual

The difference between a routine and a ritual is the attitude behind the action. While routines can be actions that just need to be done—such as making our bed or taking a shower—rituals are viewed as more meaningful practices which have a real sense of purpose. A routine is a systematic, functional group of actions that we have to complete. There is no emotional attachment. We carry out the actions in a routine because we have to. The ritual, on the other hand, is there because we want to. Rituals, like routines, are a collection of habits, with two clear differentials:

What matters with rituals is our subjective experience. With rituals, we are fully engaged with a focus on the experience of the task, rather than its mere completion. Applying mindfulness to daily routines is a great way to create rituals for ourselves. Whatever the ritual, mindfulness is a very powerful tool to design our life and avoid living it on autopilot. Some instances to facilitate understanding are:-

The Science of Habits and Creating Routines

A routine can be a finely calibrated mechanism for taking advantage of a range of limited resources: time (the most limited resource of all) as well as willpower, self-discipline, optimism. A solid routine fosters a well-worn groove for one’s mental energies and helps stave off the tyranny of moods. High achievers tend to find routines that work for them and then stick to them—it’s typically something they credit as a core to their success.

Ways to Build a Habit Stacking Routine

We all know it’s not easy to add multiple new habits to our day. Habit stacking is a strategy we can use to group together small changes into a routine that we follow daily. The key to consistency is to treat a habit stack routine like a single action instead of a series of individual tasks. Building a habit requires many elements if we want it to stick, like scheduling time for activity (a block of time), identifying a trigger, planning what you’ll do to complete the action, etc. If we treated each component of a stack as an individual action, then we will have to create a reminder and track each behaviour, which can quickly become overwhelming. However, if we treat the entire routine as just one habit, then it will be easier to remember and complete on a consistent basis. Some ways in which this can be achieved are:-

A) Start with a Five-Minute Block:-

The simplest way to stick with a new habit is to make it “stupidly simple” to complete, which is a valuable lesson. Example: If we want to write every day, then we create a goal of writing just one paragraph per day. As long as we have written this paragraph, we can consider this a complete task for the day. The core idea is to set a simple goal that overcomes inertia.

B) Focus on Small Wins:-

These are the small wins that will build “emotional momentum” because they’re easy to remember and complete. Building our routine around habits that do not require a lot of effort. Actions that require little willpower, like taking a vitamin, weighing ourselves, filling a thirty-two-ounce bottle of water, or reviewing our goals.

C) Picking a Time & Location:-

Every routine may be anchored to a trigger related to a location, time of day, or combination of both. 

D) Anchor Our Routine to a Trigger:-

Triggers are important because sometimes we cannot remember a large number of tasks without a reminder. So, a trigger can push us into taking action. There are two basic types of triggers. The first are external triggers (cell phone alarm or Post-it note on refrigerator). External triggers work because they create a Pavlovian response that when the alarm goes off, we complete a specific task.

The second type are internal triggers, which are the feelings, thoughts, and emotions that we relate to an established habit. For instance, if we have ever compulsively felt the need to “check-in” with social media, then this action was the direct result of an internal trigger. These triggers can be addictive because they act as a “reward” for posting content that people appreciate.

E) Create a Logical Checklist/ Schedule a Frequency:-

It will help to remove any guesswork about what we need to do to complete a specific action. We should try to put the small actions together in a way that they seamlessly flow into each other without wasted effort.

Ideally, these routines should be “check-in habits” that we know are important but are easy to forget, like reviewing our credit card statements, completing safety checks, and planning fun activities. By putting them into a routinely scheduled activity, we will make sure these tasks get completed without them weighing on our subconscious as yet another project that we have not finished.

F) Be Accountable:-

If our natural tendency is to lounge around before starting the day, then we will need an extra “push” to force into action. People often fail at building habits because it is easier to stay resting than it is to do something new and potentially unpleasant.

It’s not enough to make a personal commitment. The big things in life require a solid action plan and a support network to tap into whenever we encounter an obstacle. There are varieties of ways to be accountable, like posting our progress on social media accounts, or telling the people in our life (appointing auditors) about our new routine.

G) Create Small, Enjoyable Rewards:-

Giving ourselves a reward can be a great motivator to complete a daily routine. This can include anything, like watching our favourite TV show, eating a healthy snack, or even relaxing for a few minutes. We must, however, try to avoid any reward that eliminates the benefit of a specific habit.

H) Focus on Repetition:-

Repetition is key for the first few weeks when building a routine. Consistency is more important than anything else. Repetition builds muscle memory. And when we complete the routine often enough, it will become an ingrained part of our day, like brushing our teeth.

It’s not the end of the world if we miss the occasional day, but we must never, ever miss two days in a row. Try not to break the chain in the process. The purpose of not breaking the chain is to eliminate our excuses. Sometimes it’s easy to think of creative reasons not to get started. We are tired, busy, overwhelmed, sick, hung-over, or depressed. The important thing is to set a goal that can be achieved even when you have an off day.

I) Expect Setbacks:-

Setbacks are good things. They teach us resiliency. We should expect challenges to come up with this routine. When they do, we have one of two choices: give up or find a way to overcome them.

J) Scale Up our Routine:-

This scaling up doesn’t mean we haphazardly add a bunch of small habits. Instead, we need to make sure we are consistently completing the routine and not experiencing resistance to this activity. It is wise not to ignore any feelings of stress, boredom, or overwhelm when it comes to our routine. If we feel that it is getting progressively harder to get started (e.g., procrastination), then we should either reduce the number of habits or start asking ourself why we want to skip a day. The more we understand our lack of motivation, the easier it will be to overcome it.

K) Building One Routine at a Time:-

One of the biggest debates around is how long it takes to build a permanent habit. Some people say it’s twenty-one days, and others say it’s a few months. In fact, in a study published in the European Journal of Social Psychology, it was found that it takes anywhere from 18 to 254 days for an action to become a permanent habit, with the average being 66 days. It is wise not to try to build more than one habit at a time because each additional new action will make it increasingly difficult to stick with your stacks. When we feel that a routine has become a permanent behavior, which is when we can add a new habit to our daily routine.

Content Curated By: Dr Shoury Kuttappa